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E-book Mining in Indonesia : Investment, Taxation and Regulatory Guide
Since mid-2020, there has been a broad rise in mineral and coal prices driven by a strong demand recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and the restoration of business activities, as well as some pandemic-related supply constraints. The upward trend in mineral prices continued during the first quarter of 2022, with mineral prices surging and reaching record highs in March 2022. The upward trend in coal prices lasted even longer, with coal prices surging to record levels in September 2022. One of the main reasons for the mineral and coal prices surge is the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has caused major disruptions to the supply of commodities. Russia was one of the world’s largest exporters of natural gas and nickel and also accounted for a significant share of coal, crude oil and refined aluminium exports. The disruptions have exacerbated existing stresses in commodity markets following the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, which saw rebounding global demand and constrained supplies. However, since reaching record highs in 2022, mineral and coal prices have been softening and by June 2023, the price surges that followed the Russia-Ukraine conflict had largely been wiped out due to a combination of slowing global economic activity, the easing of various supply disruptions and the redirection of the trade of key commodity exports from Russia and Ukraine. Mineral and coal prices have been extremely volatile and we expect volatility to continue throughout 2023. Contrary to many market watchers’ expectations, the average price of coal rose year-on-year by 127% and 150% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Increased demand for thermal coal in Asia and Europe, tight supplies of natural gas, and sanctions on Russian coal exports were some of the factors supporting the coal price surge during these periods. However, the coal price fell during the fourth quarter of 2022, which was then followed by a sharp decline in 2023. Compared to 2022, the average coal price during the first half of 2023 declined by 42%, with the average coal price in June 2023 representing only one third of the record high coal price seen in September 2022. Several constraints that led to the sharp coal price surge in 2022 have continued to unwind. In China and India (the world’s two largest coal consumers), the demand for coal is expected to be lower, as manufacturing producers in both countries, especially steel, have completed their stockpiling and are halting their coal purchases. Coal production in China and India has also increased considerably in the last two years in response to higher prices and concern over energy security.
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