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E-book Deals and Development : The Political Dynamics of Growth Episodes
Why are there such significant and persistent differences in living standardsacross countries? This is one of the most important and challenging areas ofdevelopment thinking and policy. Much of the focus in the academic andpolicy literature on‘growth’has been on steady-state or long-run average rateof growth of output per capita or, equivalently, comparinglevelsof income.But the focus onone singlegrowth rate for a country misses the point that mostcountries observe dramatic changes in growth of per capita income. Economicgrowth in developing countries is episodic—massive discrete changes in growthare common, with most developing countries experiencing distinct growthepisodes, and growth accelerations and decelerations or collapses as transitionsbetween those episodes (Easterly et al., 1993; Ben-David and Papell, 1998;Pritchett, 2000; Jones and Olken, 2008). For individual countries, the changein living standards due to these growth episodes over a relatively short period oftime can be staggering. For example, India was known for its‘Hindu’rate ofgrowth till the late 1980s. Economic growth accelerated in 1993, and then againin 2002, and the cumulative income gain from these two growth accelerationswas 3.7trillionpurchasing power parity (PPP) dollars (Pritchett et al., 2016). Incontrast, after fourteen years of rapid economic growth, the growth deceler-ation in Malawi that began in 1978 and ended in 2002 cost each personcumulatively almost 10,000 dollars (Pritchett et al., 2016). Why do some countries successfully initiateepisodesof rapid growth,while others suffer extended stagnation? Why are some countries able tosustain growth episodes over many decades of rapid (or steady) growth,while other growth episodes end in reversion to stagnation or collapse? Thepurpose of this book is to create and then apply an analytical model that iscapable of generating both transitory and sustained episodes of acceleratedgrowth. A key feature is a feedback loop from existing economic conditionsto the pressures on policy-implementing‘institutions’. This feedback loopcan be positive (with economic growth leading to improved institutions forinclusive growth) or negative (with economic growth leading to worse con-ditions for further growth by shutting off the inclusiveness of growth andlimiting economic opportunity to existing successes). Whether economicelites use their influence on political and bureaucratic elites to create morepossibilities for structural transformation or, conversely, use their power toentrench their privileged position, will, to a significant extent, determinewhether episodes of rapid growth can be sustained or will peter out, or evenbe reversed
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