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E-book Econometrics
The unifying methodology of modern econometrics was articulated by Trygve Haavelmo (1911- 1999) of Norway, winner of the 1989 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, in his seminal paper “The probability approach in econometrics”, Econometrica (1944). Haavelmo argued that quantitative economic models must necessarily be probability models (by which today we would mean stochastic). Deterministic models are blatently inconsistent with observed economic quantities, and it is incoherent to apply deterministic models to non-deterministic data. Economic models should be explicitly designed to incorporate randomness; stochastic errors should not be simply added to deterministic models to make them random. Once we acknowledge that an economic model is a probability model, it follows naturally that an appropriate tool way to quantify, estimate, and conduct inferences about the economy is through the powerful theory of mathematical statistics. The appropriate method for a quantitative economic analysis follows from the probabilistic construction of the economic model.
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