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E-book ITF Transport Outlook 2023
Time is running out to meet the Paris Agreement goal to limit global warming to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Despite efforts by some regions to decarbonise, transport emissions will not fall fast enough, as transport demand will grow in the years to come. By 2050, passenger demand will increase by 79% under the Current Ambition scenario and freight demand will roughly double. Under the High Ambition scenario, the equivalent increases are 65% and 59%. Policy makers play a crucial role in breaking the link between transport demand and emissions. They must use the tools at their disposal to ensure zero- and low-carbon technologies and fuels scale up to become cost-competitive. For road and rail transport, low- and no-carbon technologies require large scale rollout. For the maritime and aviation sectors, developing sustainable and affordable fuels, in sufficient quantities, will be crucial to decarbonising in the long term.
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