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E-book Volcanic Unrest : From Science to Society

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Penilaian

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Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phe-nomenon of volcanism. Although it is fair toassume that probably all volcanic eruptions arepreceded by some form of unrest, the cause andeffect relationship between subsurface processesand resulting unrest signals (geophysical orgeochemical data recorded at the ground surface,phenomenological observations) is unclear andsurrounded by uncertainty (e.g., Wright andPierson1992). Unrest may, or may not lead toeruption in the short-term (days to months). If aneruption were to ensue it may involve the erup-tion of magma or may be non-magmatic andmainly driven by expanding steam and hot water(hydrothermalfluids) (Table1). These conun-drums contribute significant uncertainty toshort-term hazard assessment and forecasting ofvolcanic activity and have profound impact onthe management of unrest crises (e.g., Marzocchiand Woo2007).While institutional and individualdecision-making in response to this unrest shouldpromote the efficient and effective mitigation ormanagement of risk, informed decision-making is fundamentally dependent on the early andreliable identification of changes in the subsur-face dynamics of a volcano and their“correct”assessment as precursors to an impending erup-tion. However, uncertainties in identifying thecausative processes of unrest impact significantlyon the ability to“correctly”forecast theshort-term evolution of unrest.When a volcano evolves from dormancythrough a phase of unrest, scientific interpreta-tions of data generated by this unrest relate to(i) the processes behind unrest and their associ-ated surface signals, (ii) their potential futurespatio-temporal evolution (i.e., hydrothermal vs.phreatic vs. magmatic processes and their inten-sity) and (iii) their significance as precursors forfuture eruptive phenomena. Scientific interpreta-tions framed towards the governance of andsocial responses to the risk implicit in thepotential onset of an eruption focus on: (i) un-derstanding the epistemic (relating to the limitsof existing knowledge) and aleatoric (relating tothe intrinsic variability of natural processes)uncertainties surrounding these data and theirimpact on decision making and emergencymanagement, (ii) the communication of theseuncertainties to emergency managers and thecitizens at risk, and (iii) understanding how bestto manage evolving crises through the use offorecasted scenarios.

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Ketersediaan

Informasi Detail

Judul Seri

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No. Panggil

551.21 GOT v

Penerbit

Switzerland : Springer Nature., 2019

Deskripsi Fisik

313 hlm

Bahasa

English

ISBN/ISSN

9783319584126

Klasifikasi

551.21

Tipe Isi

text

Tipe Media

computer

Tipe Pembawa

online resource

Edisi

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Subjek

Volcanoes

Info Detail Spesifik

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Pernyataan Tanggungjawab

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Versi lain/terkait

Lampiran Berkas

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