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E-book North Korea : The Last Transition Economy
Insofar as available statistics allow for any such comparisons, some estimates suggest that North Korea’s rapid post-war industrialisation put it ahead of South Korea by the mid-1960s (Eichengreen et al., 2015). During the next three decades, however, South Korea grew very rapidly, far outpacing North Korea, where trend growth declined and turned negative as Soviet support ended and the terms of trade with China shifted to a commercial basis. What gullible visitors lauded as a miracle in the mid-1960s morphed into sclerosis. Today, real GDP in North Korea is reportedly lower than in 1990, notwithstanding a larger population, and gross national income per capita is only a tiny fraction of South Korea’s. A large share of the workforce remains in agriculture but domestic food production is insufficient to avoid widespread chronic undernourishment. At the same time, the scale and breadth of market activities has visibly expanded since the turn of the millennium, as part of a transition to a hybrid system mixing State, Party and army control with decentralised initiative, against the backdrop of a military build-up met by tightening international sanctions. Assessing economic developments in North Korea is extremely difficult. The country has not published any regular national account statistics since the 1960s (Kim et al., 2007) nor any budget information in level terms since the early 1980s. In many ways, it remains “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma”, to borrow a phrase once used to describe Russia (Churchill, 1939). The Ministry of Unification has estimated North Korea’s GDP growth during the 1980s and the Bank of Korea (BOK) has been estimating North Korea’s GDP and national income since 1990.
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